One Thing Is Certain: Things Are Uncertain

Market entry into satcom keeps failing to converge in the same place: uncertainty. Not lack of demand. Not lack of capacity. Uncertainty over whether a granted right stays granted, what it will actually cost once granted, and how long ‘in progress’ can legally last.

India shows the sequence in two acts. On 24 August, the Ministry of Home Affairs told four states to freeze the Starlink MoUs they had already signed, citing security-clearance concerns, until a national licence existed.

Ten days later, the Digital Communications Commission answered the uncertainty with a number: a 5% spectrum usage charge on adjusted gross revenue, cut to 4% in rural areas, for every satcom entrant—and higher than the regulator’s own advisory body recommended. State-level demand outran national approval; the number that resolved it nevertheless landed above expectations.

Senegal shows what happens after a licence is granted, not before. Starlink Sénégal was authorised on 6 November 2025 by a simple ministerial decree on a renewable five-year term, rather than the formal concession process that incumbent Sonatel had to go through. Service launched in February 2026.

Seven months later, on 7 September, the Supreme Court suspended that same licence after Sonatel challenged it in court for excess of power. Sonatel had paid XOF 134.5 billion across its own concession renewal and 4G/5G licences, and Starlink got a decree instead. The shortcut that eased entry is now the exact thing under review.

Libya shows what happens when the question never resolves at all. The General Authority for Communications and Informatics wants a local gateway built inside the country before it grants a licence. Starlink has offered a locally registered subsidiary instead. Two years of talks since 2024 with no resolution. Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile are both waiting on the same answer.

None of this is new and none of it is random. Regulators keep landing in one of a handful of recognisable postures. A mandatory local gateway, a staffed office, or device registration often keep showing up as requirements—just applied before or after authorisation is granted.

A licence isn’t the finish line. It is a cost you did not model until the regulator names it, a decision a court can reverse post-factum, or an incumbent demand. Even the fast track has a cost: the same shortcut that gets you in the door can be the exact thing a competitor uses to get you thrown back out. Treat uncertainty itself as the line item, because market-entry plans that price a licence as binary keep getting proven wrong, three countries at a time.