Satellite Count or the Door to the MNO?

I’ve been singing the same song for the past few years: we will be seeing more and more players joining forces in various ways and forms. And, I guess, I was right. Two deals since mid-August, one pattern underneath: controlling access to the MNOs plugging in, not owning the most satellites.

Elveo Mobile (17 Aug): Lynk Global’s LEO smallsats plus Omnispace’s licensed S-band spectrum create one D2D operator. It is already under commercial agreement with more than 50 MNOs across more than 60 countries, with SES as a strategic investor. Live today: two-way SMS and alerts—voice demonstrated, not yet commercial at scale. This is consolidation for spectrum and reach, not a bigger fleet.

Space42 + Viasat’s Equatys (15 Sept): a binding agreement with $400 million committed by each party at signing. Shared constellation of up to 2,800 satellites. Each MNO keeps its own spectrum and subscribers, with no equity required to plug in. Shared capacity, not shared equity.

What happens next? Margin is moving to whoever controls access to the MNOs plugging in, not whoever owns the most satellites.

For the MNOs plugging into these two: lower capex, no satellite relationship to build. But someone else sets the pricing and the terms you live by. Convenience now. Less control later.